Foch: April sales ticked up, but don’t break out the champagne

In their most recent update, CREA is doing what CREA does: finding the optimistic angle. As is tradition.

But… to be fair, there is an optimistic angle for the first time this year. National home sales rose 0.7 per cent month-over-month in April 2026, making this the first monthly and year-over-year increase of the year. We usually do see sales rise from March to April, so it may not be anything to get too excited about. CREA also pointed to a stronger handoff into May, falling days on market, and signs that prices are stabilizing. But the bigger picture is still much weaker than the headline suggests.

Actual April activity was four per cent below April 2025, while the MLS Home Price Index was down 4.2 per cent year-over-year. Year-to-date residential sales are still down 7.1 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis and 6.7 per cent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis from last year — and 2025 was already a soft base, with CREA reporting 470,314 transactions, down 1.9 per cent from 2024 after a tariff-induced pullback in Q1.

To put this more bluntly… 2025 was one of the worst years ever, and we’re 7.1 per cent worse than that.

That is why CREA’s Q1 “snowstorm” scapegoat could still turn out right. I don’t think it will, but it could, as buyers do seem to be easing back into the market slowly. The market was not permanently frozen. It was delayed. A lot of buyers did not disappear; they stepped back. April looks like the first thaw, but certainly not a full recovery.

Supply is still outpacing demand

The most important detail to me in the April report is not that sales rose. It is that listings rose more. Sales were up 0.7 per cent month-over-month, but new listings jumped 4.1 per cent. That pushed the national sales-to-new-listings ratio down to 45.6 per cent from 47.1 per cent in March. CREA classifies roughly 45 to 65 per cent as balanced, but 45.6 per cent is the very bottom end of that range. In plain English: supply is still outpacing demand. Remember when we were all talking about how the market going up was just “supply and demand” in relation to immigration vs. housing starts? It turns out this is a double-edged sword.

There were 5.2 months of inventory nationally at the end of April, slightly above March and close to the long-term average. CREA says a buyer’s market would usually be above 6.4 months, so nationally, this is not an official buyer’s market by that definition. But the national number hides a lot of regional weakness. British Columbia had 7.7 months of residential inventory, while its residential sales-to-new-listings ratio was below 40 per cent. Ontario’s residential sales-to-new-listings ratio was only 36.4 per cent. Those are not numbers that scream “sellers are in control.”

Prices are still moving lower

Prices are still discovering downward. The national HPI slipped 0.1 per cent in April, which CREA correctly notes was the smallest monthly decline since October 2025. But “falling more slowly” is not the same thing as “rising.” The HPI was still down 4.2 per cent year-over-year, and CREA says prices remain lower than last year in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario. The average sale price was up 2.2 per cent year-over-year, but average price is heavily affected by the mix of what sells. The HPI is the cleaner read on pricing, and it still points lower.

This matters because lower prices do bring some buyers back. That was my original forecast for 2026: houses get cheaper, affordability improves, and — all else remaining equal — more buyers step into the market.

 “In 2021, buyers felt like waiting would cost them money. In 2026, many buyers feel like waiting might save them money.”

But alas… all else did not remain equal. Buyers are still dealing with economic uncertainty, job uncertainty, higher mortgage-rate pressure, trade-war risk, oil-price volatility, and concerns around delinquencies and foreclosures. CREA itself flagged global economic uncertainty and higher mortgage rates as reasons the expected housing rebound will remain muted.

Most buyers are still waiting to see what happens. Some will creep back in if they find a good deal. But buyers are not in a hurry when they see more listings coming onto the market and prices still moving down. That changes the psychology of the market. In 2021, buyers felt like waiting would cost them money. In 2026, many buyers feel like waiting might save them money.

The regional picture

The regional data makes that clear.

In Greater Toronto, residential sales rose 6.1 per cent month-over-month, which looks strong at first glance. But new listings also rose, the sales-to-new-listings ratio was only 34.7 per cent, and the benchmark price was flat on the month and down 6.3 per cent from last year. Toronto is showing more activity, not a strong recovery. Buyers are engaging, but they are not chasing.

Greater Vancouver looks even weaker. Residential sales fell 4.0 per cent from March, while new listings rose 6.3 per cent. The residential sales-to-new-listings ratio was 33.2 per cent, and the benchmark price was down 1.0 per cent on the month and 6.8 per cent year-over-year. That is still price discovery, not stabilization.

The Fraser Valley is interesting because sales were up 3.2 per cent month-over-month and 7.6 per cent year-over-year on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. But even there, the benchmark price was down 7.3 per cent from a year ago and the sales-to-new-listings ratio was only 35.5 per cent. In other words, there are buyers, but they are showing up at lower prices.

In Alberta, Calgary and Edmonton both posted month-over-month sales gains, with Calgary up 5.3 per cent and Edmonton up 2.6 per cent. But both markets were still down year-over-year, and new listings rose in both cities. Calgary’s benchmark price was down 2.1 per cent from a year ago, while Edmonton’s was down 1.5 per cent. Alberta is not collapsing, but it has clearly shifted from the overheated momentum we saw earlier in the cycle.

Ottawa stands out for the supply story. Residential sales slipped 0.7 per cent month-over-month and were down 2.4 per cent year-over-year, while new listings jumped 10.2 per cent month-over-month and 13.4 per cent year-over-year. The benchmark price was only down 0.7 per cent year-over-year, but with that much new supply arriving, buyers are gaining negotiating power.

Then there are markets that still look better on price, especially outside B.C., Alberta, and Ontario. Saskatchewan, Winnipeg, Quebec CMA, Montreal, and Newfoundland and Labrador all had positive year-over-year HPI readings. But even there, the market is not one story. Montreal residential sales were down 4.3 per cent from March and 7.1 per cent from last April, while listings rose. Quebec CMA prices were up strongly year-over-year, but sales were also down and listings were up sharply. So the regional split remains huge: some markets are still seeing price growth, while the big, expensive markets are still absorbing the downside.

So, is this the start of a real spring market in 2026?

Maybe… but not the kind of spring market sellers are used to bragging about. This looks more like a spring market led by listings and bargain hunters, not bidding wars. Sales can rise from depressed levels while prices continue to soften. That is exactly what you would expect when affordability improves at the margin but buyer confidence remains fragile.

For buyers with stable income, strong financing and patience, this is the kind of market where opportunities appear. For sellers, it means pricing has to be realistic from day one. The buyer pool is not gone, but it is selective. And if buyers see more supply coming and prices still falling, they do not need to rush.

So… I guess CREA is right that April moved in a better direction. But one small monthly sales increase does not erase a weak year-to-date market, rising supply, and falling benchmark prices. The spring market may finally be starting, but buyers are still the ones holding the better cards.

The post Foch: April sales ticked up, but don’t break out the champagne appeared first on REM.