Foch: GTA sales up in April, but prices tell a different story

April’s GTA housing numbers are the kind of report that can be very easy to misread.

On the surface, the headline looks bullish. GTA home sales were up year over year in April, new listings were down, and the market felt more active than it did through the first few months of the year. TRREB reported 5,946 sales in April 2026, up seven per cent from April 2025, while new listings fell 9.3 per cent to 17,097. That combination — more sales and fewer new listings — usually points to a tightening market.

But the details are more complicated.

The average selling price was $1,051,969, down 4.9 per cent year over year. The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark was down 6.6 per cent from last April. TRREB’s own release noted that buyers continued to benefit from “ample choice and negotiating power.”

That is the key point: this is not a “market is back” report. It is more accurately a “market is starting to move again, but only at lower prices” report.

Sales can rise while prices fall. In fact, in a weak market, sales often rise because prices fall. As sellers adjust closer to where buyers are willing and able to transact, deals start happening again. That does not mean buyers are bidding prices up. It means the market is clearing at lower levels.

The 416/905 split

The most interesting part of the April report is the split between the 416 and the 905, and between different property types.

Detached sales were up 9.2 per cent year over year. Condo apartment sales were up 9.1 per cent. Semi-detached and townhouse sales were basically flat, up 0.4 per cent and 0.6 per cent, respectively. But on price, every major home type was down: detached prices fell 4.1 per cent, semis fell 5.2 per cent, townhouses fell 7.9 per cent, and condo apartments fell 6.3 per cent.

The 905 is taking more damage than the 416.

In the detached segment, 905 prices were down five per cent year over year, compared with a 1.9 per cent decline in the 416. In semis, the divergence was even sharper: 905 prices were down 10.1 per cent, while 416 semis were actually up 1.5 per cent. Townhouses in the 905 were down nine per cent, compared with 5.9 per cent in the 416. Condo apartments were down in both areas, but again the 905 was weaker, falling 7.5 per cent versus 6.4 per cent in the 416.

So the story is not simply that “GTA prices are down.” The more useful story is that the suburban market — especially the 905 family-home segment — is under more pressure than the urban core.

There are probably several reasons for that. Work patterns have changed again. Traffic is getting worse. Some buyers who moved farther out during the pandemic may be reconsidering the value of proximity. But one factor worth watching closely is supply, especially new supply.

What the GST/HST relief could mean

The recent GST/HST relief on new homes could become more important here. Federally, the first-time home buyers’ GST/HST rebate eliminates the GST, or federal portion of the HST, on eligible new homes valued up to $1 million, with reduced relief between $1 million and $1.5 million. Ontario’s 2026 budget materials also set out expanded HST relief for eligible new homes, with timing and eligibility rules attached. The question is where that relief actually changes the math.

In the 416 condo market, it may not be enough. If a pre-construction condo is still materially more expensive than resale, still difficult to cash flow, and still above the market-clearing price, tax relief helps but may not be sufficient to pull buyers away from resale.

In the 905 low-rise market, the math can get much closer. Detached homes, semis, townhouses and rowhouses are exactly the product types where builder incentives, tax relief, warranty coverage and slightly better pricing can move a buyer from “not quite” to “maybe.”

That matters for resale.

Pre-construction does not just create new demand. It can also pull demand away from existing homes. A buyer comparing an older 905 resale semi with an aging roof, older windows and a renovation budget against a new build with incentives, warranty protection and tax relief may start to view the resale property very differently.

This does not prove the HST change is already causing resale weakness. It is too early to say that. But it is notable that the product types most likely to benefit from stronger end-user demand — semis and townhouses — are also among the hardest-hit categories in the 905 in this month’s data.

Don’t mistake seasonality for recovery

At the same time, it is important not to confuse normal spring seasonality with a true market recovery.

Average prices are up from January. TRREB’s monthly data show the average price moving from $969,972 in January, to $1,008,055 in February, to $1,017,607 in March, and then to $1,051,969 in April. That is a meaningful move from the winter lows, but it is also normal. The market typically firms from January into spring. Product mix also changes, with more family homes transacting as households try to move before summer. A seasonal bounce does not mean the year-over-year downtrend is over.

The buyer psychology is also more nuanced than the headline suggests. Buyers are not suddenly motivated in a bullish way. They are less frozen. There is a difference.

Many buyers are still cautious. They are still watching job security, mortgage renewals, inflation, interest rates, trade uncertainty and geopolitical risk. They still see properties sitting. They still see price reductions. They still have negotiating power.

But life does not stop because the macro picture is uncertain. People get married, divorced, promoted, relocated or retired. Children get older. Schools matter. Parents need to move closer. Some buyers have been waiting for certainty for two years, and eventually fatigue sets in.

That is how pent-up demand often comes out. Not as one giant wave, but as a slow trickle of people who have waited long enough and decide to move forward.

That creates transactions. It does not automatically create price growth.

For price growth, buyers need to compete with each other. In many GTA segments, buyers are still competing with inventory.

The slow-market indicators remain

The slow-market indicators are still very visible. Average listing days on market rose to 29 days, up from 25 last year. Average property days on market rose to 43 days, up from 37. The average sale-to-list price ratio was 98 per cent, which means the average property is still selling below asking. That is not what an urgent market looks like. That is what a negotiating market looks like.

TRREB reported 25,110 active listings at the end of April. That is down from 26,813 last year, but it is still an elevated level of supply. Based on historical data reviewed for this analysis, April 2026 active listings are among the highest April levels seen in the past 16 years, rivalled mainly by 2025.

New listings also remain important. April’s 17,097 new listings were down from last year, but they still represent a substantial amount of supply entering the spring market. The key question is whether buyers return strongly enough to absorb that supply. If sales rise but listings remain elevated, prices can continue to face downward pressure.

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