Thinking of buying your first home in 2024? Stop trying to time mortgage rates

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada issued its first rate announcement of 2024, opting to leave rates unchanged for the fourth time in a row. In the wake of the decision, pundits (including myself) have been dissecting Governor Tiff Macklem’s every word and speculating about rate policy going forward.

Will the first rate cut come in April? Or maybe in July? How will U.S. rate policy affect Canadian policy? What about quantitative tightening? What is quantitative tightening? How about the wars – do they affect rates?

The truth is no one knows the future of interest rates – even Mr. Macklem is uncertain about the possibility and timing of rate cuts. For first-time home buyers navigating the uncertainty, it’s crucial to acknowledge that a crystal ball for mortgage rates doesn’t exist. And getting caught up in the hype and uncertainty surrounding the future of rates is dangerous.