CMHC expects housing starts slowdown to continue toward year-end

Canada’s housing starts continued to trend lower in August, even as the monthly pace of new construction remained essentially unchanged.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said the six-month trend in housing starts fell 1.3 per cent from July to 244,149 units in August. The measure is a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of housing starts across the country.

The monthly SAAR, meanwhile, was essentially unchanged at 229,046 units in August, compared with 229,360 in July.

Actual starts down four per cent year to date

Actual housing starts in centres with populations of 10,000 or more fell two per cent year over year, with 17,691 units started in August compared with 18,112 a year earlier.

Through the first eight months of 2026, 149,542 units were started, down four per cent from the same period in 2025.

“Housing starts continued to trend slightly down in August, as modest gains in Quebec and Alberta only partially offset the decline in other provinces, most notably, Ontario,” said Kevin Hughes, deputy chief economist at CMHC.

“The latest results are consistent with CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook. While the current pace of starts is elevated compared to recent years, we expect the downward trend to continue as construction activity moderates in the coming months especially towards the end of the year.”

Montreal, Vancouver trends rise

Among Canada’s three largest census metropolitan areas, Montreal and Vancouver both recorded increases in their six-month housing starts trends.

Montreal’s trend rose six per cent month over month, driven by higher starts across housing types. Vancouver also recorded a six per cent increase, fuelled by higher multi-unit construction. Toronto’s trend was unchanged, with both single-detached and multi-unit starts remaining flat.

Meanwhile, the number of homes under construction in centres with populations of 50,000 or more edged down 0.4 per cent from July to 371,658 units.

Completions declined more sharply, falling 11.2 per cent month over month to 17,550 units. The number of units with building permits approved but where construction had not yet started increased 0.7 per cent to 142,423.

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