Foch: Canada enters fall with fewer home sales in every province

Every province sold fewer homes this August than it did a year earlier. That is a difficult starting point for a fall recovery.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)’s August release counted 37,504 residential sales across Canada, down 6.9 per cent from August 2025. Sales also slipped 0.7 per cent from July after seasonal adjustment. Activity has gone largely nowhere since May.

The comparison year was already weak. Canada recorded 470,314 sales in 2025, down 1.9 per cent from 2024. This year’s August decline therefore comes on top of an annual market that had already contracted. Through August, 2026 sales were down 5.3 per cent from the same period last year.

Residential sales by calendar month. Historical lines retain their release vintages; the 6.9 per cent headline uses CREA’s revised August 2025 comparison.

Alberta’s August sales fell 11.5 per cent annually. Quebec was down 7.3 per cent, New Brunswick 8.7 per cent and Ontario 6 per cent. Saskatchewan held up better, but even there sales fell 2.4 per cent.

Those figures matter for agents working outside the country’s most expensive markets. Relative affordability has helped support prices in several regions. It has not insulated transaction volumes from the slowdown.

Sellers are adding competition

New listings rose 3.3 per cent from July after seasonal adjustment, while sales declined. The national sales-to-new-listings ratio consequently fell from 51.1 to 49.1 per cent, below its long-term average of 54.7 per cent.

For a seller, the practical problem is straightforward: more competing properties arrived without a matching increase in purchases.

The time frame matters. August’s actual new listings were still 3.2 per cent below August 2025. The increase was monthly, after removing the usual seasonal pattern. It would be wrong to describe every supply measure as surging.

Actual new listings show why an ordinary summer decline should not be confused with the seasonally adjusted increase reported for August.

There were just under 200,000 properties for sale nationally, 1.4 per cent more than a year earlier and roughly normal for August. Inventory was 4.8 months, unchanged for four months. CREA’s national measures still describe a balanced market, with bargaining power moving towards buyers.

The provincial differences are substantial. Ontario’s seasonally adjusted sales-to-new-listings ratio was 41.9 per cent and British Columbia’s was 45.3 per cent. Saskatchewan stood at 67.8 per cent and Manitoba at 65 per cent. A pricing strategy suited to a scarce Saskatchewan listing will not necessarily work in a well-supplied Ontario neighbourhood.

These bars show actual August sales divided by actual new listings. The seasonally adjusted ratios discussed above remove normal seasonal variation.

The price divide is real and increasingly untidy

The national benchmark was unchanged in August and 3 per cent below a year earlier. The average sale price, meanwhile, rose 0.6 per cent to $668,219. The average reflects the mix of properties sold; the MLS Home Price Index is designed to track price changes for comparable homes.

A small annual increase in the average is poor evidence that the typical Canadian home is appreciating. The shrinking annual decline in the HPI also deserves scrutiny. With prices largely flat since spring, an improving year-over-year comparison can come from the older comparison month getting weaker. That is a base effect. It does not require prices to rise today.

The regional HPI results show where the damage remains concentrated. In CREA’s seasonally adjusted table, Fraser Valley prices were down 7.1 per cent annually, Kitchener-Waterloo 6.1 per cent and Greater Vancouver 5.6 per cent. Greater Toronto was down 4.5 per cent. Victoria, however, was up 0.9 per cent, illustrating why even British Columbia needs more than one label.

Annual changes in the seasonally adjusted composite MLS® HPI, using CREA’s August release. The selection spans both coasts and the Prairies.

Regina was up 3.3 per cent, Winnipeg 2.6 per cent, Montreal 2.3 per cent and St. John’s 7.5 per cent. These are meaningful differences from the losses in southern Ontario and the Lower Mainland.

But some annual gains are becoming stale descriptions of current conditions. Winnipeg’s benchmark slipped 0.2 per cent in August. Montreal fell 0.3 per cent and Quebec City fell 0.7 per cent. Greater Moncton remained up 4.8 per cent annually while falling 2.9 per cent over three months. Prince Edward Island was down over both periods.

Nor should every positive number be dismissed as a base effect. Regina and Saskatoon both posted monthly and three-month gains. The useful distinction is between markets still advancing and markets living off earlier gains.

Across Atlantic Canada, the actual share of new listings matched by sales was lower than last August in every province. Newfoundland and Labrador’s ratio fell from 77.5 to 60.1 per cent; New Brunswick’s fell from 74.6 to 65.3 per cent. Annual price gains can coexist with a weakening negotiating position for sellers.

Same-month comparisons remove the seasonal mismatch. Prior-year ratios use the revised figures in the current CREA release.

Financing could keep the fall market subdued

The next constraint may come from the mortgage quote rather than the asking price. Five-year Government of Canada bond yields increased through the summer while the overnight policy rate held steady. CREA says higher bond yields have already pushed fixed mortgage rates up.

Bank of Canada series through August. Fixed mortgage pricing also includes lender funding costs and margins.

In its latest policy statement, the Bank warned that persistent high energy prices had increased inflation risks and that renewed trade uncertainty could delay investment and hiring. Higher borrowing costs and less confidence in future income could keep buyers cautious even where prices have fallen. Oil-producing regions may receive an income benefit, but that does not remove the financing pressure.

CMHC’s summer outlook expects starts to decline through 2028. Its new supply report warns that weaker ownership construction could threaten recent affordability gains. Fewer future homes, however, will not clear a seller’s competition this fall.

For agents, the evidence supports a more demanding listing conversation. Use recent comparable sales, check the properties the buyer can choose instead, and revisit the price when that competition changes. An annual gain is historical context. It is not a promise that the next buyer will pay more.

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