Foch: The GTA buyers’ market is still trudging on

The June GTA housing numbers are exactly the kind of data the real estate industry likes to turn into a recovery story.

Sales were up. New listings were down. Active inventory was lower than a year earlier.

Those are real shifts.

But they do not erase the bigger point: prices are still down, affordability is still stretched and buyers have been rewarded for patience.

According to TRREB, the GTA reported 6,770 sales in June 2026, up 9.4 per cent from June 2025. New listings fell 12.9 per cent to 17,282. Active listings declined to 27,329 from 31,585 a year earlier.

That is the bullish part of the report.

The less convenient part is the price data.

The average GTA selling price was $1,058,658 in June, down 3.9 per cent year-over-year. The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark was down 5.4 per cent. TRREB also noted modest month-over-month improvement on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the annual price comparison remains negative.

So yes, the market is functioning better than it was earlier in the year.

No, that does not mean the market is doing well. It’s still low by historical standards, but it’s better than last year, yes.

But a slow market is not necessarily bad.

The bull case is still too easy

One of the real estate industry’s bad habits is the instinctive reach for the bull case.

If sales rise, the market is back.

If listings fall, inventory is tightening.

If prices move up for a month, the bottom is in.

There is always a way to frame the data as a reason to buy now.

But clearly, households do not buy press releases. They buy payments. They buy groceries. They buy the 180 per cent debt-to-household-income ratio we just climbed back to after showing brief signs of deleveraging:

That is the part that keeps this market under pressure. Mortgage rates are lower than the peak, but financing is still expensive compared with the cheap-debt era. TRREB’s June report showed a Bank of Canada overnight rate of 2.3 per cent and a prime rate of 4.5 per cent. The typical GTA home is still priced above $1 million.

The bid is still constrained by debt service. That is why a rise in sales does not automatically mean sellers have regained pricing power. More transactions can happen because buyers are confident. They can also happen because sellers have finally accepted lower clearing prices.

In this market, that part has determined the outcome. Patience has worked since 2022. Buyers are not irrational for being cautious.

For the last couple of years, patience has been rewarded. Prices have softened. Condo weakness has persisted. More sellers have had to accept reality. Stale listings have accumulated. The fear of missing out has been replaced by the fear of overpaying.

That shift is healthy, but also uncomfortable for an industry built around transaction urgency.

A buyers’ market is not a disaster if you are a buyer. It means more affordability, more negotiation, more due diligence and more room to walk away. It means people can transact in a market that is less manic and more rational.

It is also closer to what many Canadians say they want. A recent Financial Post report noted that about 55 per cent of Canadians want home prices to fall further, even after the decline from the peak. That should not be surprising. If a generation has been locked out by prices, a weaker market is not automatically bad news. It can be the mechanism that restores some affordability.

There is nothing wrong with saying the market is not doing well. Sometimes that is exactly what makes it more usable.

The macro backdrop is still not friendly

The reason I remain more bearish than bullish right now is not because every data point is negative. It is because the risk backdrop still leans the wrong way.

Financing is still expensive. Rate markets are not giving households a guaranteed path to cheap relief. The economy is fragile. Confidence is weak. Trade uncertainty is back in the conversation, including the risk of Trump threatening CUSMA. In markets like Vancouver, even the discussion of condo bailouts tells you something about the stress sitting under parts of Canadian housing.

None of this means the GTA has to collapse. But it does mean the upside case has to fight through a lot of resistance. For prices to move materially higher (or even stop falling), buyers need income confidence, financing relief and a reason to believe they are not stepping into more downside. Right now, many buyers still have good reasons to wait.

And again, waiting has worked.

Condos remain the pressure point

The GTA headline also hides important differences by property type.

In June, detached homes accounted for 3,256 sales at an average price of about $1.36 million. Semi-detached homes recorded 617 sales at about $1.04 million. Townhouses had 1,082 sales at roughly $845,000. Condo apartments had 1,714 sales at roughly $631,000.

In the City of Toronto, the composite HPI benchmark was about $934,000, down 4.3 per cent year-over-year. The apartment benchmark was about $553,900, down 7.6 per cent. Detached homes were still near $1.47 million, down 4.8 per cent.

That apartment weakness is notable.

Condo apartments are where investor math, completions, resale supply, rent assumptions, carrying costs and buyer confidence collide. They are also the segment most exposed to the gap between what investors hoped the market would be and what the market is actually willing to pay.

This is why broad recovery language is dangerous.

Some parts of the market may become more liquid while other parts remain under pressure. Some sellers may get better showings while others continue to sit. Some buyers may find real value while others are still being asked to rescue someone else’s bad pro forma.

What buyers should take from June

For buyers, June is not a reason to panic.

It is a reason to stay precise.

The market is still giving buyers leverage in many segments. Prices are below last year. Financing still limits bids. Sellers who need to move are more realistic than they were during the boom. Condo weakness is still creating opportunities and risks.

The right approach is not to wait forever, and it is not to rush because one sales number improved.

Run the payment. Compare against recent solds, not asking prices. Be aggressive where inventory is stale. Be cautious where the rent math or condo fundamentals are weak. Move quickly only when the price is already realistic.

The opportunity is not in calling the bottom.

It is in using a buyers’ market properly.

What sellers should take from June

For sellers, June is not permission to price like the cheap-money market is back.

The buyers who are active today are not the same buyers from 2021. They are more cautious, more data-aware and more willing to walk away. They have seen discounts. They have seen losses. They know patience has been rewarded.

That means pricing discipline matters.

If a seller is close to the new financing reality, there may be a buyer. If the seller is anchored to the old market, the listing can still sit.

June gives realistic sellers a better chance to transact.

It does not give unrealistic sellers a blank cheque.

The buyers’ market continues

June was a better month for activity.

Sales improved. New listings fell. Active inventory was lower than last year.

But prices were still below last year, condos remained soft, financing was still expensive and the macro backdrop still carried more downside risk than upside risk.

So the cleanest read is not “the recovery is here.”

The cleaner read is that the buyers’ market trudges on.

That is not cynical. It is not bearish for the sake of being bearish. It is just a more honest description of a market still working through price discovery.

And for buyers, that can be a good thing.

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