Fogliato: Newly released mortgage renewal survey data gives agents a reason to reconnect

Royal LePage released its 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey this week, and there are plenty of numbers in it that will make headlines. Thirty-eight per cent of borrowers expect their monthly mortgage payment to increase when they renew. Thirty-five per cent say they’re more anxious about this renewal than their last one. Among those expecting an increase, 76 per cent believe it will put at least some financial strain on their household.

If you’re a real estate agent, though, I think there’s another way to look at this research. Instead of asking what the numbers tell us about the housing market, ask what they give you a reason to talk about with your database.

Agents spend a lot of time trying to manufacture reasons to reach out to people. Here’s a national study about something many Canadian homeowners are already thinking about. Royal LePage commissioned the research, Burson surveyed 1,127 Canadians approaching mortgage renewal, and the findings give agents something credible and timely to put in front of past clients.

Most people aren’t moving. That’s what makes this interesting.

For the past few years, we’ve heard a lot about the mortgage renewal cliff. Canadians bought and refinanced when borrowing costs were extraordinarily low, and the expectation was that higher renewal rates could eventually force some homeowners to sell.

Royal LePage’s research suggests the reality is considerably less dramatic.

Among homeowners expecting financial strain from their renewal, 58 per cent plan to reduce discretionary spending, 48 per cent will cut travel, 38 per cent will delay renovations or repairs and 35 per cent will reduce saving or investing. More importantly, 71 per cent of all respondents say they aren’t considering changing their living arrangements to avoid higher mortgage costs.

Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, says the widespread default crisis many feared hasn’t materialized. Instead, households are finding ways to adjust.

That’s important context if you’re going to use this research in your marketing. An email warning people about a “mortgage crisis” isn’t just alarmist, it misses what the research actually says. Most people aren’t moving, but some people are thinking about it.

Royal LePage found that 22 per cent are considering changing their living arrangements. Seven per cent are considering relocating to a more affordable region, five per cent are considering downsizing and another five per cent are considering renting out part of their home. In Toronto, 31 per cent are considering some kind of change.

That’s where this gets useful.

Use the research to start a conversation

A mortgage renewal is a natural decision point. Even if someone ultimately stays exactly where they are, a new payment can make them ask questions they weren’t asking six months ago. Do we still need this much house? Would downsizing actually save us money? Could we move somewhere less expensive? What is our home worth today?

If I were still an agent, I’d look at the homeowners in my database who bought around 2021. You won’t know everyone’s mortgage situation but you know roughly when many of your past clients purchased.

Then I’d send them something like this (but customize it to your voice and market):

Subject: Is your mortgage coming up for renewal?

 

Royal LePage just released a study that found roughly one in five Canadians approaching mortgage renewal are considering changing their living arrangements because of potentially higher payments.

It made me think about the people I’ve helped over the years.

If your mortgage is coming up for renewal, are you considering whether staying, moving or downsizing makes the most sense?

If you are, reply and let me know. I’d be happy to help you work through the real estate side of the decision.

The objective isn’t to get your entire database to respond. You’re trying to find the handful of people for whom this happens to be relevant right now.

If you have 500 homeowners in your CRM and this email starts five legitimate conversations with people reassessing their housing situation, that’s a very good email. We spend too much time trying to create marketing with the broadest possible appeal when sometimes the better approach is to be extremely relevant to a small number of people at exactly the right moment and get them to raise their hand.

And if someone responds, don’t immediately turn it into a listing pitch. Help them make the decision they’re actually trying to make. Show them what their home could realistically sell for, what downsizing might look like or what comparable housing costs in another community. If the conversation gets into mortgage products or financing, bring in a qualified mortgage professional.

The goal isn’t to convince someone to move. It’s to help them understand their options.

The bigger lesson

This is what I find most interesting about the Royal LePage report.

There is an enormous amount of research published about Canadian real estate every year. Real estate companies commission consumer studies. CREA and local boards publish statistics. CMHC produces research. Banks survey homeowners. Statistics Canada releases data. The Bank of Canada makes announcements that dominate the news cycle.

Most agents either ignore that information or share it on social media with a sentence or two explaining what happened. There’s nothing wrong with sharing useful information, but I think that’s stopping one step too early.

Instead of asking, “Should I share this?”, ask “Who in my database does this matter to?”

Then ask, “What useful conversation does this give me a reason to start?”

Royal LePage has already done the expensive part. They’ve commissioned the research and given us a snapshot of what Canadians approaching renewal are thinking about. Your opportunity isn’t to repeat the research. It’s to translate it into something useful for the people you serve.

Some homeowners are anxious. Most are going to pay more. Most intend to stay exactly where they are. But a meaningful minority are reconsidering where and how they live.

Those people don’t necessarily need another market update. They may need a real estate professional who can help them understand their options.

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