The niche nobody owns may be the niche nobody wants

Editor’s note: This article was drafted using AI from a transcript of The Leads Are Sh*t. It was reviewed for accuracy and approved by show co-host Andrew Fogliato, then edited for publication by Courtney Zwicker.

Finding a neighbourhood with no dominant agent can feel like discovering open territory. No obvious competitor. No entrenched brand. No one consistently publishing the market data, mailing the homeowners or defining what makes the area special.

That can be an opportunity, but it can also be a warning.

Sometimes, nobody owns a niche because nobody has done the work. Sometimes, nobody owns it because there is not enough business there to make the work worthwhile.

That distinction became one of the most useful parts of the latest episode of The Leads Are Sh*t. Andrew Fogliato and Taylor Hack were working through Hack’s plan to become the authority on properties around Edmonton’s River Valley when the conversation moved to a mistake agents often make: treating a lack of competition as proof of demand.

It is not.

Before you decide to own a neighbourhood, property type or lifestyle category, you need to prove that there is a market worth owning.

The empty-category trap

Fogliato recalled an agent looking at several neighbourhoods. One area had two well-known agents. Another had one. A third had nobody.

The third area appeared to be the easiest opening until the agent looked at the sales data. Almost nobody moved. There was no dominant agent because there were not enough transactions to reward someone for becoming one.

This is the empty-category trap. Low competition and low demand can look identical from a distance. The difference only becomes visible when you study the numbers.

The right question is not, “Can I become known here?” It is, “If I become known here, is the likely business valuable enough to justify the investment?”

Test the niche before you build around it

A niche should pass three practical tests.

1. Turnover

How many relevant properties actually sell in a year?

If your strategy centres on a neighbourhood, look at the number of annual sales, not simply the number of homes. If it centres on a property type or feature, isolate the properties that truly meet your definition and find out how often they reach the market.

This distinction matters in Hack’s River Valley example. The total number of homes with a particular type of access is interesting, but the more valuable number is how many become available each year.

A category can contain hundreds of properties and still produce very few opportunities.

2. Economics

Next, work out what a realistic share of the market would mean for your business.

Do not build the plan around owning everything. Ask what happens if you earn five per cent of the available transactions, then 10 per cent. Consider the average price point, likely commission revenue, cost of the marketing and the time required to build recognition.

For a small group of high-value properties, a high-touch strategy may make sense. Handwritten notes, personally addressed mail and detailed research do not need to scale when the audience itself is intentionally small.

For a lower-value category with very little turnover, even becoming the best-known agent may not create a viable return.

3. Buyer and seller demand

Transactions tell you what happened and demand tells you what may happen next.

Are buyers actively asking for this type of home? Do owners believe the category is distinct and valuable? Does the niche describe a real desire, or is it merely a convenient label for your marketing?

Rare properties can create attention far beyond the listing itself. A River Valley home, waterfront property, architect-designed house or hard-to-find bungalow may attract people who are not ready to buy that exact home today but want to be notified when the next one appears.

That attention can become an asset if you capture it.

Do not just report the category. Define it.

Once a niche passes the test, the next opportunity is to shape how the market talks about it.

Hack has been developing language to distinguish River Valley properties. A home whose yard touches the valley does not offer the same experience as one across the street. Instead of grouping them together, he can define levels such as “exclusive access” and “immediate access,” then support those terms with data.

This is more than copywriting.

When an agent consistently names a meaningful distinction, documents it and uses it across videos, guides and conversations, buyers and sellers can begin using the same language. The agent is no longer competing only for attention. The agent is teaching the market how to evaluate the category.

That becomes especially powerful in a listing presentation.

Many owners already know an agent. Trying to replace that relationship with a louder claim is difficult. Bringing insight that the other agent does not have changes the conversation.

How many true examples of this property type exist? How often do they sell? Which streets command a premium? What does “access” really mean? Which buyers are already waiting?

Information is available to everyone, but organized insight is much harder to copy.

Build the audience before you need the transaction

The strategy becomes more durable when the agent owns a direct connection to both sides of the market.

For owners, that might be a small email list that sends an analysis whenever a relevant property sells. The message does not need an elaborate design. A concise note explaining what sold, why it mattered and what it may mean for nearby owners can be enough.

For buyers, it might begin with a guide, a market map or an invitation to hear about suitable properties before the broader public campaign begins, subject to the applicable advertising and real estate rules in the agent’s market.

Over time, this creates something more useful than a social following: a specific group of people who have raised their hands for a specific category.

That list also improves the agent’s value proposition. When meeting a potential seller, the agent is not promising to find interested buyers later. The agent can show that a relevant audience already exists.

Social media can support the strategy, but it should not be the only connection. An algorithm decides who sees a post. A well-maintained email list gives the agent a direct route to people who asked to hear from them.

Track the evidence before the commissions arrive

The first months of a niche strategy can feel slow because commission income is a lagging indicator. By the time the revenue says a plan is failing, the agent may have already spent a quarter doing the wrong work.

Fogliato and Hack argued for tracking earlier signals.

Depending on the strategy, those signals might include:

– The number of relevant homeowners added to the database

– Guide downloads and email subscriptions

– Replies from buyers asking about future inventory

– Conversations with owners in the category

– Listing appointments created

– Signed representation agreements

– The percentage of the niche’s new listings and sales connected to the agent

These measures do not replace revenue. They show whether the conditions for future revenue are being created.

Quarterly planning is useful for the same reason. A long-term goal gives the team a direction, but a 90-day window forces the agent to ask what needs to become true now.

If the data does not support the niche, change it before the niche consumes a year. If the data is strong but the leading indicators are flat, change the execution.

The goal is not to be famous everywhere

Most agents do not need the entire city to know their name.

They need to be known by enough of the right owners and buyers in a market where transactions actually happen. A small category with meaningful turnover, strong economics and active demand can be more valuable than a large but vague audience.

Prove the market. Define the language. Publish the insight. Build the audience. Measure the signals. Then earn the right to say you own the niche.

Join the conversation live

The Leads Are Sh*t is a weekly strategy lab where Andrew Fogliato and Taylor Hack break down what is working, fix what is not and test ideas inside an actual real estate business.

Join the show live every Thursday at 2 p.m. ET to ask a question, take the hot seat and stay for the off-the-record After Show, which is not included in the replay.

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