April TRREB Stats: The Gap Narrows

TorontoRealtyBlog

Ah, the Narrows!

Have any of you been?

To visit “The Narrows” in Zion National Park, that is.

When I was growing up, I was probably the only person in my peer group who had heard of Utah, let alone visited the state.  Every time I told a friend, “I’m going to Utah this summer,” they would reply, “The Yukon?”

Nobody had any clue where it was!

Then along came a little thing called the “Olympics” in 2002, and word was out.

Now I know all kinds of people who have visited Utah, and it makes me jealous.  Not that I don’t want to share, since I believe that if you truly love something, you want others to experience it as well, but because I haven’t been there since 2011.

That summer, I took my now-wife, then-girlfriend, to experience the authentic Midwest.  And how can you experience the Midwest without going to a desert in Utah?

A little place called “Moab,” which some of you may have heard of, was the site of a very memorable experience

We went for a hike in Arches National Park, which needs to be on everybody’s bucket list, and all was well until about 1:00 p.m. when the sun hit its peak.

The temperature hit 109-degrees farenheit and we just about died.

But that’s not what was memorable.

What was memorable was us trying to find a nice place to eat that evening, scouring the internet for options, and then making a decision that would live in infamy:

Denny’s.

No word of a lie, we just didn’t feel like red wine, candied Brussels sprouts, and a medium-rare ribeye after enduring 109-degree weather.  We just wanted comfort food, so we showed up at Denny’s at 4:45pm and ate eggs, bacon, and a slew of silver dollar pancakes.

Oh, and water.  Lots and lots of water…

If you’re wondering, “What kind of a person tells that story?” you’re clearly new to Toronto Realty Blog.  It’s not just a story I’m sharing, but rather one that I’m proud to share…

If you’re looking for a summer trip idea, consider Utah.  It’s one of the most incredible places on earth.

Arches National Park, Canyonlands National Park, and Zion National Park are three of the most incredible places I’ve ever seen.

And the best hike you’ll ever do in your life?

The Narrows.

Trust me on this, and if you don’t, then do a quick Google search when you’re done reading today’s blog post…

When I look at the TRREB stats for the month of April, my overwhelming takeaway is that we’re seeing a narrowing.

Not only because it gave me a reason to post that beautiful, scenic photo above and then regale you with stories from National Parks in Utah, but rather because I feel as though the gap in prices between 2025 and 2026 is starting to narrow.

The biggest takeaway for me in the month of January was the fact that the average home price in January of 2026 was 6.5% lower than January of 2025.

That gap was wide.

In fact, it was wider than any 2024-vs-2025 gap that we saw in the year prior.

In February, the gap increased to a whopping 7.0%.

January and February were really tough months in our market, and while I wrote in previous blog posts that I believe this was, in part, due to the brutal weather and miserable moods that resulted, there are many who simply thought at the time, “This is the market.”

In March, the gap was still 6.9%.

But last month, the gap narrowed significantly.

Let’s have a look at the updated average home price:

The average home price increased by 3.4% from March to April.

You would expect home prices to increase from March to April, of course, as they do so just about every year:

It’s quite fitting that the only exceptions were 2020 and 2022.

2020 was COVID.

2022 was the exceptional market decline.

The average increase from March to April, from 2002 through 2025, is 2.4%.

So last month’s increase was well ahead of the trend.

Now, that brings us to the year-over-year figure!

As I said, the gap has narrowed rather significantly:

I wrote in this space last month that this gap was “worth keeping an eye on as we head into the busy spring market.”

This is precisely why.

January and February were so bad, and so barren, that I believe many of the would-be buyers from those months will end up transacting in April, May, and June.

Here are the last three years on a monthly basis:

The gap widened in April from 2024 to 2025, and yet it narrowed from 2025 to 2026.

I’m not sure what the media is going to run with this month, but it just might be the abysmal sales figures, as seen below:

Put an asterisk next to 2020, why don’t ya?

Accounting for COVID, those 5,946 sales are the second-lowest in any month of April this millennium.

They’re only 7.0% higher than the lowest figure, set, of course, last year.

Now, if we’re looking for some indication that these sales figures are not abysmal, it would be via the March-to-April sales figures:

The 5,039 sales in March led to 5,946 in April, which is an increase of 18.0%.

That’s the highest March-to-April movement since 2019, and the second-highest since 2016.

Let’s remember that 2025 saw the fewest sales in Toronto since the 1990’s.

We saw 66,315 sales in 2023.

We saw 67,984 sales in 2024.

And then we saw a mere 62,731 sales in 2025.

Because of how weak January and February were this year, we’re actually on pace to see fewer sales in 2026 than even last year:

This is only through four months, and the trend has changed as we moved into April.

But it’s not unreasonable to think that we could see fewer sales in 2026 than in 2025, just based on this data.  I’d give it a 50/50 shot if you were asking me today.

Inventory was up month-over-month, as it always is from March to April, but down 9.3% from 2025:

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that the quality of listings is quite poor out there right now, and I have many buyers looking for a house that simply doesn’t exist, but I say this every month, and the readers always call bullshit on it, so I digress…

Put our sales and listings together, and we see just how well (or not) the market is absoring inventory:

Not well, as I said.

An absorption rate of 34.8% is exceptionally poor and screams “buyer’s market.”

I received seven offers on my Leslieville listing on Monday night, and two tonight on our townhouse in South Riverdale, so I wouldn’t quite call it a buyer’s market just yet.  If you’re buying a house in York Region, okay.  If you’re buying a condo just about anywhere, fine.  But for a freehold in the central core?  No chance.

Here’s how the absorption rate plays out by TRREB district:

This really isn’t a significant difference.  All five areas are giving “buyer market” vibes, but as I said, you have to take that with a grain of salt depending on the property type, price point, and geographic location.

While we’re on districts, I’d like to look the year-over-year price movement in each of these five areas.

Knowing that the price gap has “narrowed” to only 4.9%, year-over-year, surely there are areas that have declined more, and areas that have declined less, right?

Right.

It would seem that, at least in Halton, and at least in the month of April, the market is holding in strong compared to this time last year.

Toronto and Peel are both tracing the GTA average, while Durham lags behind, and York looks just downright awful.

That “narrowing gap” I speak of becomes more apparent when you consider the month-over-month data in the five major TRREB districts:

I certainly don’t think that your Halton home is “worth” 9.3% more in April than it was in March, but as far as statistics go, this shows where prices have moved, and how they shape that 3.4% monthly increase in the overall GTA average.

Again, York is looking quite troublesome…

So that’s a wrap on the first third of the year!

Wow, I just heard that out loud; I can’t believe we’re already a third of the way through 2026.

With two months left in the prime spring market, I think things are going to get really busy before they slow to a crawl in the summer.

Oh, and for those looking to sell a downtown condo in June, don’t forget about all the gridlock that will be caused by the World Cup…

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