Negotiation Intelligence: What Mark Carney understands about negotiation — and what we can learn

Every Canadian anticipating the CUSMA negotiations understands that the stakes are high. This isn’t something you walk into and “see what happens.” The negotiations promise to be complex, competitive, chaotic and tactical.

But Prime Minister Mark Carney hasn’t been waiting for negotiations to begin. He’s been planning, preparing and strategizing. He’s travelled the globe strengthening international relationships, exploring trade alignment and accelerating decisions around infrastructure and resource development. On the surface it looks like diplomacy, but it’s more than that. It’s negotiation planning.

He is shaping options, influencing perception, reducing dependency and preparing for pressure. Carney is building and signalling Canada’s BATNA.

What is BATNA — and why it matters

Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement is a foundational negotiation concept. In plain terms, it’s your fall-back plan, your alternatives. When you have strong alternatives, you have leverage. If Canada arrived at the table with the same dependency on the U.S. that we had 12 months ago, the odds of securing a fair deal would be dramatically lower.

Carney has also built a negotiation structure around him — not just a chief negotiator, but a broader advisory group representing business, labour and political experience from all parties. Different perspectives, different pressures, different priorities, all informing the strategy before a single word is spoken at the table. That level of disciplined preparation is not unique to international diplomacy. It’s the standard in every high-stakes negotiation.

Now bring this closer to home

In real estate, most negotiations are treated as though they begin when the offer is presented. That’s when focus sharpens. That’s when your client looks to you for guidance. That’s when the pressure arrives. But by that point, a surprising amount has already been set in motion — or left unaddressed.

Consider a very real scenario. Your seller receives an offer that looks strong on price; it might even exceed expectations. But the conditions are weak. The financing is uncertain, the inspection clause is broad, the timelines favour the buyer and there is no deposit accompanying the offer. Your client turns to you and asks: “What do you think we should do?”

The instinctive answer focuses on price. The disciplined answer requires something you should have already done: a thorough assessment of BATNA on both sides.

What are the seller’s real alternatives if this deal falls apart? Is there still an active buyer pool for this property? Does your client have the financial and emotional runway to say no and wait? Now flip it. What are the buyer’s alternatives? Are they particularly attached to this property, or do they have genuine interest in other listings? What is their financial situation? Are they emotionally invested?

This information isn’t always easy to surface, and the agent who builds professional trust and communicates with subtlety is far more likely to get what they need. That intelligence shapes everything.

If the buyer is solid and values something specific about the property, a deal can likely be structured that reduces the seller’s risk while still giving the buyer the opportunity to do their due diligence. The goal isn’t to win the negotiation — it’s to design an outcome that both sides can accept.

The perception of BATNA matters just as much as the reality

Here’s the nuance that separates good negotiators from great ones: it’s not just BATNA that matters. It’s the perception of BATNA. People make decisions based on what they believe their options are, not always what those options actually are. Your ability to communicate with clarity, build trust and create a collaborative environment is what allows both sides to feel confident in the outcome.

This is the part many agents believe they already understand. And conceptually, most do. But in practice, it’s consistently underdeveloped. We prepare the listing, price the property, market it and manage the showings. But we don’t always invest enough time strengthening our client’s position before the negotiation begins. We don’t always think carefully about BATNA on both sides. We don’t always consider how our side’s alternatives can be improved, or at minimum, how they will be perceived across the table.

Carney isn’t waiting to see how the U.S. negotiates. He’s shaping the environment they will negotiate in — reducing dependency, expanding options, demonstrating resource strength and making those alternatives visible. That doesn’t guarantee a better outcome. But it changes the tone before anyone sits down.

He said it directly: “It’s not the case that the United States dictates the terms. We have a negotiation.”

Your seller can project that same confidence

But only if the groundwork has been laid. When their alternatives are real and clearly established, your advice changes. You can recommend holding firm on weak conditions even when the price is attractive. You can push for stronger terms without fear of losing the deal. You can slow the pace rather than being pulled into the buyer’s timeline. And your client will feel that difference — not pressure, but informed confidence.

The agents who navigate these moments well aren’t more aggressive. They’re more prepared. They’ve thought through the deal from both sides before the pressure arrives.

At a national level, this kind of preparation is obvious. No one expects a country to improvise its way through a negotiation of this importance. In real estate, where the stakes are deeply personal and often financially significant, we should hold ourselves to the same standard.

The advice you give in the moment is only as strong as the position you built before you got there.

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